eXtreme EuRopean drOughtS: multimodel synthesis of past, present and future events

• Applicant: Dr. Oldrich Rakovec
• Subject Area: Hydrogeology, Hydrology, Limnology, Urban Water Management, Water Chemistry, Integrated Water Resources Management ; Atmospheric Science
• Term: from 2019 to 2022
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 412863158

• Final Report Year: 2023

Final Report Abstract

The outcomes of the XEROS project have contributed mainly to the scientific discussion on improved understanding of several aspects of the detection and assessment of the long-term changes in drought characteristics across Europe. The project objectives were defined in three areas: (1) reconstruction of hydroclimate variables, (2) improved understanding of large-scale droughts and (3) future hydroclimate projections of drought. The findings from this bilateral project resulted in 11 published ISI-listed research articles (5 were led by the UFZ team and 6 were co-authored by the UFZ team) in leading scientific journals. The results of the XEROS project also garnered public, scientific, and media attention, e.g., The Guardian, Deutsche Welle, Deutschlandfunk, Arte TV, The Daily Mail, ZDF Heute, Süddeutsche Zeitung, National Geographic. Based on our results, we emphasise the need for new technological developments to mitigate the effects of extreme droughts and heatwaves and further research to understand how this new kind of fast-intensified droughts will impact human health, ecosystems, and, ultimately, our living conditions.

Publications

• A 250‐Year European Drought Inventory Derived From Ensemble Hydrologic Modeling. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(11), 5909-5917.
  Moravec, Vojtěch; Markonis, Yannis; Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini & Hanel, Martin
  
• Increased future occurrences of the exceptional 2018–2019 Central European drought under global warming. Scientific Reports, 10(1).
  Hari, Vittal; Rakovec, Oldrich; Markonis, Yannis; Hanel, Martin & Kumar, Rohini
  
• On the curious case of the recent decade, mid-spring precipitation deficit in central Europe. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3(1).
  Ionita, M.; Nagavciuc, V.; Kumar, R. & Rakovec, O.
  
• Europe under multi-year droughts: how severe was the 2014–2018 drought period?. Environmental Research Letters, 16(3), 034062.
  Moravec, Vojtěch; Markonis, Yannis; Rakovec, Oldrich; Svoboda, Miroslav; Trnka, Miroslav; Kumar, Rohini & Hanel, Martin
  
• The rise of compound warm-season droughts in Europe. Science Advances, 7(6).
  Markonis, Yannis; Kumar, Rohini; Hanel, Martin; Rakovec, Oldrich; Máca, Petr & AghaKouchak, Amir
  
• A 500-year annual runoff reconstruction for 14 selected European catchments. Earth System Science Data, 14(9), 4035-4056.
  Nasreen, Sadaf; Součková, Markéta; Vargas, Godoy Mijael Rodrigo; Singh, Ujjwal; Markonis, Yannis; Kumar, Rohini; Rakovec, Oldrich & Hanel, Martin
  
• Increasing footprint of climate warming on flash droughts occurrence in Europe. Environmental Research Letters, 17(6), 064017.
  Shah, Jignesh; Hari, Vittal; Rakovec, Oldrich; Markonis, Yannis; Samaniego, Luis; Mishra, Vimal; Hanel, Martin; Hinz, Christoph & Kumar, Rohini
  
• The 2018–2020 Multi‐Year Drought Sets a New Benchmark in Europe. Earth's Future, 10(3).
  Rakovec, Oldrich; Samaniego, Luis; Hari, Vittal; Markonis, Yannis; Moravec, Vojtěch; Thober, Stephan; Hanel, Martin & Kumar, Rohini
  
• On the role of antecedent meteorological conditions on flash drought initialization in Europe. Environmental Research Letters, 18(6), 064039.
  Shah, Jignesh; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis; Markonis, Yannis; Hanel, Martin; Attinger, Sabine; Hari, Vittal & Rakovec, Oldrich
  
• On the role of the Atlantic Meridional Mode in eastern European temperature variability. Atmospheric Research, 297, 107082.
  Hari, Vittal; Rakovec, Oldrich; Zhang, Wei; Koppa, Akash; Collins, Matthew & Kumar, Rohini