GLobal glacIer maSs balance prediction on SeAsonal and DEcadal scale (GLISSADE)

• Applicant: Professor Dr.-Ing. Kristian Förster
• Subject Area: Hydrogeology, Hydrology, Limnology, Urban Water Management, Water Chemistry, Integrated Water Resources Management
• Term: from 2018 to 2023
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 416069075

Glaciers provide important water resources and are essential to regional water supply. The ongoing climate-driven glacier retreat affects water availability in glacierized watersheds and contributes to global sea level rise. This project pursues the goal to shed light on the predictability of glacier mass balances (i.e. the net gain or loss of ice and snow) on seasonal (i.e. lead time of 6 months) and decadal (i.e. lead time of several years) time-scales. To achieve this, retrospective climate model-based seasonal and decadal forecasts (CFSv2, GloSea5, DePreSys) are used as forcing data for a process-based global glacier model with ice flow dynamics (OGGM). Retrospective forecasts are forecasts computed for past periods of time using both today’s state of the art coupled atmosphere-ocean-climate models and valid initial conditions for each forecast period in the past. This approach allows for comparing forecasted states with corresponding observed states from the past (e.g. glacier mass balances and glacier length time series). In this way, the skill of seasonal and decadal predictions regarding glacier mass balances on the seasonal scale and changes in glacier length on the decadal scale can be studied in detail for glaciers worldwide and related to features in the climate system. Thus, the project contributes to improve our knowledge about the predictability of glaciers and might serve as a basis for future glacier forecast systems. This is especially relevant for providing reliable forecasts of water availability and sea level rise.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: Austria, United Kingdom
• Co-Investigator: Professor Dr. Ben Marzeion
• Cooperation Partners: Professor Dr. Fabien Maussion; Professor Dr. Adam Scaife