Bringing Uncertain Ecosystem Services into Forest Optimization

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Thomas Knoke
• Subject Area: Forestry
• Term: from 2018 to 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 418938102

• Final Report Year: 2025

Final Report Abstract

Ecosystem services are increasingly of scientific interest, with their assessment and valuation considered essential for the sustainable management of ecosystems. In decision-making related to ecosystem management, it is often beneficial to maintain a wide range of future options in order to remain flexible in response to potential market changes. In forestry science in particular, it is crucial to pursue multiple objectives that incorporate a variety of ecosystem services, while simultaneously accounting for uncertainty in their future provision. This project employed several approaches aimed at better integrating uncertain ecosystem services into forest planning and further developed concepts for accounting for uncertainty— such as that arising from large-scale disturbances. Using forest recreation in Germany as a case study, the project addressed an ecosystem service that may only develop real markets or payment flows in the future. Nonetheless, recreation services are currently often overrepresented in economic evaluations of forest ecosystem services, frequently based on high hypothetical willingness-to-pay estimates without reference to actual markets. Through a decision experiment incorporating utility functions based on forest characteristics, this project laid the groundwork for a more realistic integration of recreation services in forest planning. We were able to show that proximity to recreational areas—as well as their heterogeneous design—is preferred by visitors. In addition to the focus on forest recreation in Germany, the project advanced methodological frameworks for integrating uncertainty and evaluating ecosystem resilience, and conducted a study on the direct discounting of non-market ecosystem services. The more uncertain the future appears to decisionmakers, the more strongly time preferences may influence their decisions. To account for time preferences, even for non-monetary ecosystem services, the project used a South African land-use portfolio to demonstrate the concept of discounting ecosystem services. It examined the effects of integrating uncertainty into land-use decisions, both via short-term time preferences and via uncertain input data represented through ellipsoidal uncertainty sets. The advancement of robust optimization methods under uncertainty and the integration of multiple objectives is presented, and the incorporation of highly uncertain disturbance events into assessments of economic resilience is explored.

Publications

• How considering multiple criteria, uncertainty scenarios and biological interactions may influence the optimal silvicultural strategy for a mixed forest. Forest Policy and Economics, 118, 102239.
  Knoke, Thomas; Kindu, Mengistie; Jarisch, Isabelle; Gosling, Elizabeth; Friedrich, Stefan; Bödeker, Kai & Paul, Carola
  
• Optimizing land-use portfolios on farm-level: Case study for a South African forestry and agricultural enterprise. Seminar Waldbau, Ökosystemdynamik und Forstplanung, Freising
  Jarisch, I.
  
• Production risks and price uncertainties in South African forestry and Avocado plantations. Risikoworkshop 2020, Freising
  Jarisch, I.
  
• Accounting for uncertainties in robust, multi-objective optimization: Case study for a combined forestry and agricultural land-use portfolio in South Africa, Forstwissenschaftliche Tagung 2021, Freising
  Jarisch, I.
  
• Diskontieren von Ökosystemleistungen – Einflüsse auf die Risikodarstellung südafrikanischer Farmportfolios, Risikoworkshop 2021, Freising
  Jarisch, I.
  
• Inventory of Forest Attributes to Support the Integration of Non-provisioning Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity into Forest Planning—from Collecting Data to Providing Information. Current Forestry Reports, 7(1), 38-58.
  Knoke, Thomas; Kindu, Mengistie; Schneider, Thomas & Gobakken, Terje
  
• Assessing the Economic Resilience of Different Management Systems to Severe Forest Disturbance. Environmental and Resource Economics, 84(2), 343-381.
  Knoke, Thomas; Paul, Carola; Gosling, Elizabeth; Jarisch, Isabelle; Mohr, Johannes & Seidl, Rupert
  
• Discounting ecosystem services in robust multi-objective optimization – an application to a forestry-avocado land-use portfolio. 19th Symposium on Systems Analysis in Forest Resources (SSAFR 2022), Estes Park, Colorado, USA
  Jarisch, I.
  
• Diskontieren von Ökosystemleistungen - eine Maßnahme zur Effizienzsteigerung? Waldökonomisches Seminar, Münchenwiler, Schweiz
  Jarisch, I.
  
• Diskontierung von Ökosystemleistungen: Pflicht oder Kür?. AFZ - Der Wald (14): 24-27
  Jarisch, I. & Knoke, T.
  
• The influence of discounting ecosystem services in robust multi-objective optimization – An application to a forestry-avocado land-use portfolio. Forest Policy and Economics, 141, 102761.
  Jarisch, Isabelle; Bödeker, Kai; Bingham, Logan Robert; Friedrich, Stefan; Kindu, Mengistie & Knoke, Thomas
  
• Valuing forest recreation by using a choice experiment. Seminar Waldbau, Ökosystemdynamik und Forstplanung, Freising
  Jarisch, I.
  
• Welche Eigenschaften machen Wälder attraktiv zur Erholung? – Ein Entscheidungsexperiment zur Erfassung von Besucherpräferenzen in Deutschland. Forstwissenschaftliche Tagung 2023, Dresden
  Jarisch, I.
  
• Considering the land-cover elasticity of ecosystem service value coefficients improves assessments of large land-use changes. Ecosystem Services, 68, 101645.
  Knoke, Thomas; Elsasser, Peter & Kindu, Mengistie
  
• Diskontieren von Ökosystemleistungen: Effizienzsteigerung ohne Nebenwirkung?. Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen, 175(1), 19-27.
  Jarisch, Isabelle & Knoke, Thomas
  
• How to integrate visitors’ preference for recreation in forest management plans? – A discrete choice experiment to estimate ecosystem service (ES) demand and valuation. 20th Symposium on Systems Analysis in Forest Resources (SSAFR 2024), Hondarribia, Spanien
  Jarisch, I.
  
• Which characteristics support forest recreation? – A discrete choice experiment to evaluate visitors’ preferences for forest recreation in Germany. IUFRO World Congress 2024, Stockholm, Schweden
  Jarisch, I.
  
• Minimising the relative regret of future forest landscape compositions: The role of close-to-nature stand types. Forest Policy and Economics, 171, 103410.
  Knoke, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Schula, Tobias; Fibich, Jonathan & Gang, Benjamin