Die Effekte der Struktur der Stimmzettel und der Kandidateninformationen auf Wahlentscheidungen unter den gemischten Wahlsystemen
Politikwissenschaft
Zusammenfassung der Projektergebnisse
The project asks how ballot design and information on it affects voter behavior. It is important because elections and voting are the foundation of modern democracies. If the sequence in which voters complete ballots, and/or the information on those ballots, influences voters, it has implications for democratic practices. The project identifies the ways in which ballot design might affect voter behavior, allowing election administrators to take actions preserving the neutrality of the process. The project addresses the question of ballot design by first situating it in the context of mixed-member electoral systems. Mixed-member systems allow voters to cast two ballots, typically one for a party list and another for a candidate to represent a constituency. The structure of ballots in these systems allows us to test how voters approach the ballots, and to investigate what information they use in the decision-making process. We developed a theory of risk diversification to better understand why voters may split tickets (i.e., vote for different parties on the two ballots), while we rely on voters’ cognitive short-cut to explain straight tickets. We used two different experimental methods to conduct our study. First, we used online surveys, including ballot completion experiments, to gather data. We varied the way in which information was presented to participants, and conducted the surveys in three countries (Germany, Lithuania, and Japan) to control for the regional context. Second, we used eye tracking equipment to map how participants interacted with ballots to better understand what information they used prior to making a decision. Our findings suggest that the use of a German-style ballot (which presents the party list and constituency race on a single ballot) has different effects on the likelihood of split-ticket voting in comparison with separate ballots in sequence. In Germany, where voters are familiar with the ballot design, the simultaneous ballot design induced more split-ticket voting, which can be interpreted as voters’ risk-diversification behavior. That is, given possibilities that two votes can be cast simultaneously, voters distribute their vote to minimize the risk of being disappointed by the elected candidates/parties’ postelection performance. The eye-tracking data as well as the timing of votes (as response time in the survey) indicate that voters confronted with the German style ballot cast two votes as a package. This kind of voting behavior requires a higher level of cognitive effort. While German voters developed behaviors associated with the design of their ballot, those in Lithuania and Japan are used to voting in a sequential way and are unfamiliar with the German style ballot. Correspondingly, they rely more on heuristics such as party (Lithuania) and leader (Japan) cues, which induces more straight ticket voting. We also found that information about the district candidates can have an effect on voting behavior, but this varies depending on the contexts. In sum, ballot design and its information has multiple impacts on voting behavior and their consequences are non-negligible in some circumstances.
Projektbezogene Publikationen (Auswahl)
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Ballot Information, Sequencing, and Voting Behavior: Experimental Evidence from Germany’s Mixed-Member Proportional Electoral System. Paper prepared for the annual meeting of the Midwest American Political Science Association
Erik Herron & Susumu Shikano
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Going into details: A new approach to study lastminute vote decisions. Paper prepared for the annual meeting of the Midwest American Political Science Association
Susumu Shikano, Erik S. Herron, Jonas Stettner, Corran Hubert Macfarlane, Friederike Bauer & Anna Werner
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Ballot Design Effects on Voter Behavior in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: Evidence from Survey Experiments in Germany and Lithuania. Paper prepared for the annual meeting of the Midwest American Political Science Association
Erik Herron & Susumu Shikano
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Personalization of Electoral Politics under Mixed-Member Proportional Systems. Paper prepared for the annual meeting of the Midwest American Political Science Association
Anna Werner & Susumu Shikano
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Was gibt es Neues beim Triell? Personalisierung der Politik bei der deutschen Bundestagswahl 2021. Wahlen und Wähler, 443-460. Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden.
Shikano, Susumu & Herron, Erik
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A Comparative Analysis of Ballot Familiarity and Voter Behavior in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems. Paper prepared for the annual meeting of the Midwest American Political Science Association
Erik Herron & Susumu Shikano
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Risk diversification and vote decisions in mixed-member electoral systems. Public Choice, 204(1-2), 203-219.
Shikano, Susumu & Herron, Erik S.
