Does nepotism make populations more or less vulnerable to environmental change?
Evolution, Anthropology
Final Report Abstract
Simulation modelling is an invaluable tool in the realm of ecology and wildlife conservation. Simulations can offer insights into the dynamics of natural systems that may be difficult or impossible to obtain through in-situ observation of wildlife alone. Well-parameterized simulation models allow researchers to make predictions about future population trajectories as well as conduct in-silico experimentation to gain a deeper understanding of ecological processes. This project used simulation modelling to support the ongoing research of the Ngorongoro Hyena Project, that has studied spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) in Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania, since 1996. Collection of detailed demographic and behavioural data over almost three decades makes the spotted hyena population of Ngorongoro Crater one of the best studied populations of large carnivores in the world. Ongoing research on the spotted hyena has provided a detailed picture of the species, including their complex social behaviour with a strict, female-dominant social hierarchy and nepotism in social inheritance. This project designed and constructed an individual-based model (IBM) used to simulate the population of spotted hyenas in Ngorongoro Crater. The model was parameterised using 26 years of in-situ demographic and behavioural observations from Ngorongoro Crater, integrating existing knowledge on the demography, behaviour, and complex social hierarchy of the species. The resulting individual-based model, the Spotted Hyena Individual-Based Model (SHIM), can be used to effectively simulate this large, social carnivore. We demonstrated the power of SHIM to answer complex ecological questions using in-silico experimentation. SHIM was used as part of a large international quantitative genetic project to quantify the potential for natural selection in 19 wild bird and mammal populations. As part of this project, we also designed a novel in-silico methodology to estimate time-varying carrying capacity using SHIM, which allows us to disentangle the effects of recent and past environmental change on population growth. Such analyses have particular relevance for conservation of long-lived species. Our results demonstrate the power and versatility of our model and highlight the potential for this model to support ongoing research.
Publications
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Genetic variance in fitness indicates rapid contemporary adaptive evolution in wild animals. Science, 376(6596), 1012-1016.
Bonnet, Timothée; Morrissey, Michael B.; de Villemereuil, Pierre; Alberts, Susan C.; Arcese, Peter; Bailey, Liam D.; Boutin, Stan; Brekke, Patricia; Brent, Lauren J. N.; Camenisch, Glauco; Charmantier, Anne; Clutton-Brock, Tim H.; Cockburn, Andrew; Coltman, David W.; Courtiol, Alexandre; Davidian, Eve; Evans, Simon R.; Ewen, John G.; Festa-Bianchet, Marco ... & Kruuk, Loeske E. B.
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Effects of environmental change on population growth: monitoring time-varying carrying capacity in free-ranging spotted hyenas.
Bailey, L.D. et al.
