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Opinion Polarization on Identity Politics and Denationalization Issues: A Longitudinal Comparative Perspective

Subject Area Empirical Social Research
Term from 2020 to 2024
Project identifier Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 440923825
 
Final Report Year 2023

Final Report Abstract

The aim of the project was to analyse opinion polarisation on new identity-related and cultural political issues (e.g. immigration, gender roles, diversity, the EU) in Europe. Polarisation was measured through marginal distributions of survey responses and through opinion differences between socio-structural groups. The analysis draws on long-term survey data. Key Findings: Low overall polarisation and stability over time: Long-term survey projects show only limited evidence of opinion polarisation, and no increase in recent decades. Bimodal distributions in the overall population are rare. These results are consistent with findings from other research teams. Occupational classes: differences without clear camps: While mean opinions differ across occupational classes, the working class is internally divided, especially on immigration and EU issues. Right-wing populist actors can mobilise parts of the working class, but not the majority. Focusing on specific aspects of immigration rather than general anti-immigration rhetoric is likely to be more successful. Importance of item wording: The degree of polarisation found depends strongly on how survey items are formulated. General statements (e.g. "Immigrants are good for the economy.") rarely produce polarisation; concrete questions (preferred immigration levels, assimilation requirements) do so more often. Polarisation measures also react sensitively to the length of answer scales. Why polarisation is often not detected: Many items in long-term surveys are formulated in highly abstract ways. Empirically, the largest marginal opinion differences are found for more concrete questions. Perceived conflict without polarisation: Perceptions of societal division can arise when individual issues receive intense attention. During the 2015 refugee situation, immigration dominated the public agenda, which magnified existing differences, even though long-term opinions on migration-related issues remained relatively stable and non-polarised. Covid-19: politicization without extremes: Covid-19 was a unique issue without established political alignments beforehand. Although the topic became politicised, polarisation between ideological groups remained moderate and fluctuated with the stages of the pandemic. No stable extremes emerged. Cultural backlash: different dynamics East/West: In Hungary and Poland, less educated groups have shown long-term rejection of homosexuality, while highly educated groups became increasingly liberal. The conditions for a “cultural backlash” are therefore much clearer in Eastern Europe than in Western Europe. Conclusion: To study structural polarisation, it is useful to focus on intersections between social parameters (e.g. class × region) in order to identify particularly polarised groups. However, small groups should be interpreted cautiously with respect to their political relevance.

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