MOMO-Med: Modellierung von Vektoren und Risiken mückenübertragener Krankheiten im Mittelmeerraum unter Klima- und Landnutzungswandel
Epidemiologie und Medizinische Biometrie/Statistik
Zusammenfassung der Projektergebnisse
With one exception all planned goals of the MOMO-Med project could be achieved. The exception relates to the very high-resolution REMO experiments at the convectionpermitting scale due to unforeseen technical problems within the model development process (see WP6). Note that another much larger project activity with more involved climate model developers is concerned by the same issue, i.e. the NUKLEUS project within the RegIKlim framework (BMBF). To compensate this shortcoming we have implemented the land use land cover changes (LULCC) in an improved and approved REMO version that is able to combine LULCC with an interactive vegetation model (WP4). In addition, much more effort was investigated to achieve a new benchmark at the climate change-species distribution interface by thoroughly assessing, biascorrecting and adapting the use of bioclimatic variables from climate models (WP3 and WP7). The MOMO-Med project has revealed substantial changes in species distribution from northern Africa over southern Europe to central Europe. Climate change appears to be the main driver. The bioclimatic variables represent a suitable framework for addressing the nexus between climate change and species distribution. However, they are widely generalized for being used in various regions and scientific issues. It can be expected that more specific multivariate climatic boundary conditions tailored to a given region may add value to assessing future health risks due to vector-borne diseases across Europe. Meteorological and vector-related compound events may present a promising option for future research.
Projektbezogene Publikationen (Auswahl)
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Blessing and curse of bioclimatic variables: A comparison of different calculation schemes and datasets for species distribution modeling within the extended Mediterranean area. Ecology and Evolution, 13(10).
Merkenschlager, Christian; Bangelesa, Freddy; Paeth, Heiko & Hertig, Elke
