Frequency Information as an Evidential Basis for Knowledge, Suspicion, and the Attribution of Guilt

• Applicants: Dr. Leandra Bucher; Dr. Paul Thorn
• Subject Area: Theoretical Philosophy ; General, Cognitive and Mathematical Psychology
• Term: since 2021
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 458466164

This project addresses unresolved questions concerning the acceptable use of frequency information as an evidential basis for knowledge and as an evidential basis for making unfavorable judgments about individuals, especially within legal proceedings and other public situations, such as airport security screenings. In addition to challenging existing views of why certain sorts of frequency information are defective as evidence, we introduce and defend some previously undescribed epistemic and ethical principles that do place significant limits on the permissible use of frequency information (e.g., in the case of ethnic profiling). We also conduct studies with human subjects in order to (1) show that the reluctance of persons to regard frequency information as a proper evidential basis is often the result of distorted perceptions of probability, and (2) establish techniques that can be used to reduce distorted perceptions of probability. Through further empirical studies, we also test the hypothesis that subjects regard it as problematic to conclude that a person has an undesirable characteristic based upon a particular piece of evidence unless there is a non-negligible probability that the evidence is a causal consequence of the person having the characteristic. The ultimate goals of the project are to develop clear and compelling recommendations concerning the acceptable use of frequency information in forming legal judgments, and to offer public policy recommendations that are informed by a better understanding of the cognitive processes that influence intuitions about the acceptable use of frequency information as evidence.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants