Social Status and the Spread of Pandemics

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Jochen E. Gebauer
• Subject Area: Personality Psychology, Clinical and Medical Psychology, Methodology
• Term: from 2021 to 2023
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 466310528

A universal rule in the psychology of pandemics states that pandemics spread primarily through people of lower social status. Challenging this universal rule, we predict that it holds true for later phases of pandemics only. At the critical early phases, by contrast, people of higher social status should drive pandemic spread. Why? Our phase-sensitive model of status-dependent pandemic spread states the following. In later pandemic phases, people of lower social status drive the spread because in those phases spread-prevention norms are in place, which people of higher social status have the privilege to follow much more thoroughly than people of lower social status (e.g., the nature of lower-status jobs often renders physical distancing difficult). In earlier pandemic phases, people of higher social status should drive the spread, because in those phases spread-prevention norms are not yet in place and people of higher social status possess social networks, which put them at particular risk to catch and spread novel viruses. Specifically, higher-status social networks stand out for their large heterogeneity and flexibility (e.g., people of higher social status travel much more for work and pleasure and, thus, meet large numbers of diverse and novel people). In preliminary research on two pandemics (COVID-19, 1918/19 Spanish Flu) and three nations (U.S., England, Germany) we found evidence for our phase-sensitive model. Yet, more research is urgently needed to gain a deeper theoretical understanding of our model and to confidently derive policy recommendations. Three research questions require particular attention: (RQ1) The preliminary evidence for our model relies on region-level COVID-19 data only. Does that evidence generalize to the individual level? To find out, we will use nationally representative survey data from the German Socioeconomic Panel and web-scraped U.S. mortality data and apply time-to-event-analysis. (RQ2) The preliminary evidence for our model relies on data from nations with a comparatively early pandemic onset only. Does that evidence generalize to nations with later onsets—nations that had more time to prepare for the pandemic? To find out, we will compile a database of daily regional COVID-19 infection rates for 18 nations from four continents and apply growth curve modeling. (RQ3) The preliminary evidence for our model relies on data from the first wave of COVID-19 only. Does that evidence generalize to later waves—waves in which the virus is no more novel to any societal stratum? To find out, we will temporally expand the data used to answer RQ2 so that it will also cover the second pandemic waves in all 18 nations. Overall, the proposed research will allow us to verify and extend our phase-sensitive model of status-dependent pandemic spread, to deepen our theoretical understanding of social status and the spread of pandemics more generally, and to derive policy recommendations based on strong empirical evidence.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants