Social Status and the Spread of Pandemics
Final Report Abstract
A seemingly universal rule in the psychology of pandemics states that pandemics hit people of lower social status particularly strongly. Challenging this rule, we predict that it holds true for later phases of pandemics only. In the critical early phases, however, pandemics should primarily spread among people of higher social status. More precisely, we argue that pandemic spread is phase-sensitive: In later pandemic phases, pandemics should spread primarily among people of lower social status because in later phases spread-prevention norms are in place, which people of higher social status have the means to follow more closely compared to people of lower social status (e.g., lower-status jobs often render physical distancing difficult). In earlier pandemic phases, by contrast, pandemics should spread primarily among people of higher social status because in earlier phases spread-prevention norms are not yet in place and people of higher social status possess more heterogenous social networks, which put them at particular risk of catching and spreading novel viruses (e.g., people of higher social status travel more and, thus, meet more diverse people). In preliminary research on two pandemics (COVID-19, 1918/19 Spanish Flu) and three nations (US, England, Germany) we found evidence for our phase-sensitive model. To gain a deeper theoretical understanding of our model the present grant addressed three main research questions: (RQ1) The preliminary evidence for our model relied on regional COVID-19 data only. Does that evidence generalize to the individual level? We used web-scraped US mortality data from the COVID-19 pandemic and found that our model holds on the individual level. (RQ2) The preliminary evidence for our model relied on data from nations with a comparatively early pandemic onset. Does that evidence generalize to nations with later onsets—nations that had more time to prepare for the pandemic? We used regional COVID-19 data from 24 European nations and 50 US states. We found that our model only holds in nations and states with an early pandemic onset. In nations and states that had a later onset and, thus, more time to prepare, poorer regions were always more affected. (RQ3) The preliminary evidence for our model relies on data from the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 only. Does that evidence generalize to the second wave, in which the virus is no longer novel to any societal stratum? We expanded our data from RQ2 to include the second wave in 24 European nations and 50 US states. We found that our model holds in the second pandemic wave – but only in Europe, where the pandemic was almost completely contained between the first and second wave. Overall, we found that–across 24 nations and 50 states–pandemics initially spread among individuals and regions of higher social status. We refined our theoretical understanding by pointing to two boundary conditions: Our model only holds if nations or states are hit without time to prepare, and it only holds in the second pandemic wave if the pandemic was contained in between waves.
Publications
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Ärmere leiden viel stärker unter der Pandemie [The poor suffer much more due to the pandemic]. Interviewees in the Rhein Neckar Zeitung – Corona Podcast.
Berkessel, J. & Ebert, T.
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Pandemics initially spread among people of higher (not lower) social status: Evidence from COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu. Congress of the German Psychological Society, Hildesheim, Germany.
Berkessel, J.; Ebert, T.; Gebauer, J.; Johnsson, T. & Oishi, S.
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Zuerst die Reichen, dann die Armen: Über die Verbindung zwischen sozialem Status und der Ausbreitung der COVID-19 Pandemie und der Spanischen Grippe [First the rich, then the poor: How pandemics spread in a society]. Invited popular science talk at the yearly meeting of the MIND Hochschulnetzwerk [MIND Higher Education Network].
Berkessel, J.
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Pandemics initially spread among people of higher (not lower) social status: Evidence from COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu. Poster at the Convention of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Atlanta, US.
Berkessel, J.; Ebert, T.; Gebauer, J.; Johnsson, T. & Oishi, S.
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Who is most at-risk during pandemics? Using big data to replicate contemporary findings in historic populations. Talk at the 4th Symposium on Big Data and Research Synthesis in Psychology 2023, Frankfurt, Germany.
Berkessel, J.; Ebert, T.; Gebauer, J.; Johnsson, T. & Oishi, S.
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Zuerst die Reichen, dann die Armen: Wie sich Pandemien in der Gesellschaft ausbreiten [First the rich, then the poor: How pandemics spread in a society]. Invited popular science talk at the Jugendakademie Mannheim [Youth academy of Mannheim].
Berkessel, J.
