The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on students’ transition from high school to post-secondary education
Empirical Social Research
Final Report Abstract
The project investigated whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affected educational decision-making of the high school graduation cohort 2021 in Germany. Investigating these effects is important because research unambiguously shows that educational decisions at the end of school have long-lasting individual and societal pecuniary and non-pecuniary consequences. The project centrally arguments that increases in insecurity and decreases in mental health due to the COVID-19 pandemic during final years of schooling affect the educational decision-making process. For instance, shutdown policies complicate access to relevant information on post-secondary educational paths, as less counseling services are available. As information on transitions is a key driver of decision-making the reduced access might have distorted educational plans of high school students. Moreover, hygiene and distance measures, self-isolation and travel bans could have a direct impact on student’s mental health—a key resource for educational success and attainment. Our project used unique panel data on 2,000 high school students from eight German Federal States. The data derive from a project called “BerO study” that investigates the impact of job-counselling delivered by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA) on the transition from high schools to post-secondary education. To this end, the “BerO study” implements multiple CAWI and CATI surveys with students and parents between fall 2019 and fall/winter 2022. As a central feature, the BerO data includes detailed measures on subjective beliefs about different post-secondary tracks, grades, and actual educational decisions. Additionally, since wave 2, questionnaires ask about learning effort during school closings, distance learning, worries about school performance and occupational future, the subjective impact of COVID-19 pandemic, and COVID-19 infections. Additionally, in spring 2022 the project also collected data on around 900 students to conduct a factorial survey experiment. Based on event study analysis, we find a short-term negative effect of an own COVID-19 infections on self-rated health and no effect on students’ mental health. The negative health effects disappear after 3 months. Moreover, COVID-19 infections have a negative short-term impact on subjective beliefs about GPA. However, infections do not affect subjective beliefs about post-secondary education and GPAs. Furthermore, our results indicate that COVID-19 infections slightly postpone uptake of apprenticeship training. Overall, our results suggest no heterogeneity across different social groups. Finally, the effect of COVID-19 infections on educational decision-making appears limited. Results based on the implemented factorial survey suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic induced emotional distress and career overwhelm—both dimension are facets of affective mental health and therefore important for educational decision-making—in individuals enrolled in university and vocational training. However, the experiment suggests such pandemic effects are rather small and does not indicate that a worsening of the COVID-19 pandemic translates in changes of educational plans. In addition to findings on COVID-19, results indicate that the Ukraine war and a worsening of labor market conditions affects emotional distress.
Publications
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The COVID-19 pandemic, well-being, and transitions to post-secondary education. Review of Economics of the Household, 21(2), 461-483.
Sandner, Malte; Patzina, Alexander; Anger, Silke; Bernhard, Sarah & Dietrich, Hans
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Two pandemic years greatly reduced young people’s life satisfaction: evidence from a comparison with pre-COVID-19 panel data. European Sociological Review, 40(5), 872-886.
Neugebauer, Martin; Patzina, Alexander; Dietrich, Hans & Sandner, Malte
