Regional-scale ice-flow modelling in Patagonia since the Little Ice Age (RESPONSE)

• Applicant: Dr. Johannes Fürst, since 5/2024
• Subject Area: Physical Geography ; Geophysics
• Term: since 2022
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 495516510

The Patagonia Ice Fields have been losing mass since the end of the Little Ice Age (around 1870) and observations show that the pace of this loss has importantly increased in the last decades. In stark contrast to the observed mass loss, models point at positive values for the climatic mass balance at the ice surface of both the Northern and the Southern Patagonian Ice Fields. Ice-dynamic mass loss at the ice-front of marine- and lake- terminating outlet glaciers is a candidate to close this discrepancy. Many prominent outlet glaciers have sped up and retreated during the last century. Yet, retreat phases are heterogeneous and non-contemporaneous and their importance in the overall mass loss remain to this day unclear. Our project therefore aims at developing a state-of-the-art ice-dynamic modelling strategy that appropriately captures changes in the regional-scale frontal ice loss as well as in the climatic mass balance of the icefields since the Little Ice Age. To this end, a large-scale ice-flow model, already coupled to a climatic mass balance scheme, will be adjusted to the Patagonia setting, with priority for the Southern Patagonian Icefield. This involves a firm calibration with remotely sensed variables and the implementation of approaches for submarine melting and iceberg calving both suitable for elongated glacier trunks. Forced by climate reanalysis of the last 150 years, the ice-flow model will permit to capture the icefield retreat history at centennial timescales with a specific focus on a reliable attribution of the recent mass loss acceleration into ice-dynamic and anthropogenic effects. Moreover, projections of the Patagonia icefields future evolution under climate warming will help to identify the potential drivers of mass loss for the next century. This project is well embedded in complementary research activities in Patagonia with focus on extensive glaciological and geodetic field work, improved estimates of glacier thickness, local and process-oriented glacier-system modelling and remote sensing analysis. After a successful completion of this project, a compatible, state-of-the-art modelling tool is put in place capable of constraining the ice-dynamic evolution of the Patagonian Ice fields on centennial to millennial timescales.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• Ehemalige Antragstellerin: Dr. Ilaria Tabone, until 5/2024