Chinese adaptation to conflict risks in the era of the Belt and Road Initiative: a multi-actor analysis of risk perceptions and responses

• Applicant: Dr. Pascal Abb
• Subject Area: Political Science
• Term: since 2023
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 503113940

The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has so far mainly attracted attention due to its potential use as a geopolitical tool furthering Chinese influence in member states. However, the ways in which challenges encountered in these environments act back on China itself and force adaptation are much less understood. This project proposes to study this issue through the lens of Chinese engagement in conflict-affected states, in which many BRI investments are clustered, and where different groups of Chinese actors have to grapple with the resulting risks and challenges. It disaggregates “China” into four distinct groups of actors – companies, state regulators, experts and foreign and security policymaking institutions – and traces adaptation at each level by analyzing both perceptions of and responses to conflict risks. The project will assess if and how such adaptation drives broader policy changes in fields from Chinese developmental efforts to overseas military deployments, providing important insights into the ways in which a rising China is grappling with its new global role . Situated at the intersection of China Studies and Political Science, the project utilizes a mostly qualitative multi-method research design to investigate the processes, causes and consequences of adaptation to conflict risks. It delivers significant contributions to several ongoing academic debates, including studies tracing adaptation within each sub-group and explaining policy changes in separate fields, as well as a better understanding of how diverse Chinese interests interact below a high-level strategy like the BRI. By understanding and analyzing the Chinese presence in conflict-affected environments as an interactive process binding and affecting both sides, the project significantly expands existing research on the BRI, including earlier studies undertaken by the applicant. Finally, it is of high practical relevance as a better understanding of Chinese agency in conflict environments will also help to inform parallel international efforts in fields like developmental assistance and peacebuilding.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: Austria, China
• Cooperation Partners: Dr. Jiahan Cao; Bernardo Mariani