Climate variability: the role of climatology in the climate change vulnerability of plant communities

• Applicant: Aldo Compagnoni, Ph.D.
• Subject Area: Ecology and Biodiversity of Plants and Ecosystems
• Term: since 2022
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 506492810

As climate change threatens the biosphere, the demand for spatially explicit forecasts of species vulnerability to changes in climate has skyrocketed. These spatially explicit forecasts are an irreplaceable component to prioritize conservation efforts. One of the ways to produce these spatially explicit forecasts is quantifying the climatic tolerance of species. The climate variability hypothesis posits that the range of climates tolerated by species changes predictably across the globe. This hypothesis posits that less variable climates, such as those found in the lowland tropics or along oceanic coasts, select species that tolerate a narrow range of climates. This expectation has been tested in animals, but rarely in plants, and never at a global scale. In CLIMVAR, I will perform the first global test of the climate variability hypothesis focused on plants. Specifically, I will address how strongly local climate selects for the range of climates plants are able to tolerate, and how this affects their population dynamics and climate change vulnerability. First, I will quantify the correlation between plant environmental tolerances and local climatic variability at a global level. Second, I will test whether plant environmental tolerances influence the way plant populations respond to fluctuations in annual climate in Europe and North America. Third, I will combine these inferences with climate change scenarios to produce maps of plant vulnerability to climatic change in Europe and North America. This work is designed to transform our understanding of how historical climate influenced the climate tolerance and climate sensitivity of plants. Moreover, climate vulnerability maps will provide an incisive tool to decision makers and non-governmental organizations involved in biological conservation.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants