Delphi techniques to find consensus in the health sciences. A methodological reflection (DEFLEX)

• Applicant: Professorin Dr. Marlen Niederberger
• Subject Area: Empirical Social Research
• Term: since 2023
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 516628412

Delphi techniques are used in the health sciences especially to find consensus. However, studies show, among other things, that there are many diffuse modifications and statistical errors in analyses. This project aims to improve how Delphi procedures are conducted and the quality of the data when these techniques are used to find consensus. Three factors are examined, which, according to the current research, have an influence on judgment formation and consensus building. These factors include expert panel composition, survey design, and how feedback is given. Each of these factors is looked at over the course of different Delphi rounds. While doing so, attention is paid not only to the current changes to Delphi techniques, but also to general methodological debates about the participation of affected groups, the combination of qualitative and quantitative data, and the particular aspects of online surveys in the analyses. On a level above this, two research questions are pursued: 1. Analysis of factors that influence consensus finding: Behind this is the assumption that, in addition to subject matter and content-related aspects, there are also personal, methodical or pragmatic research factors that influence the motivation to participate and the intellectually demanding process of forming judgments, which then also influence consensus finding. For this reason, the practice of using Delphi procedures in research and judgment behavior are analyzed, including over multiple Delphi rounds. According to the optimizing-satisficing theory, it is argued that psychologically the respondents in Delphi procedures have a high degree of willingness, due to their professional interests, to intellectually grapple with the questions and issues in order to arrive at a well-founded and "optimal" judgment. To do this, they draw upon their own expertise and experience while also considering the feedback from previous Delphi rounds and knowledge from external sources. The analysis of these influencing factors is carried out quantitatively, qualitatively and experimentally. 2. Formulating methodical quality standards and guidelines for conducting Delphi procedures to find consensus, which are evaluated by the international Delphi-experts. The methodical approach is complex and pluralistic in design. To analyze the judgment behavior of experts, a systematic review, a scoping review, cognitive expert interviews, an experiment, an evaluation of Delphi procedures, and a secondary analysis of completed Delphi studies will be applied. This collection of evidence aims at formulating initial recommendations for quality standards and guidelines for Delphi procedures. These proposed recommendations will then be evaluated in a separate Delphi study with internationally regarded Delphi experts.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants