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EXC 3127:  Future Forests - Adapting Complex Social-ecological Forest Systems to Global Change

Subject Area Agriculture, Forestry and Veterinary Medicine
Term since 2026
Project identifier Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 533786343
 
Forests cover about 30% of the global land surface and provide many crucial ecosystem ser-vices (ESs) such as renewable resources production, climate change mitigation, water retention, promotion of human health, and protection of biodiversity. However, with rapid climate change, unprecedented disturbances, the introduction of non-native and loss of native species, large tracts of forests are developing into novel ecosystems with no analogue in evolutionary history. The extent to which these novel ecosystems can provide desired ESs and protect biodiversity is highly uncertain. Projected changes are rapid and, in some cases, too fast for natural adaptation processes to maintain healthy and biodiverse forests. In parallel, we see novel social regimes that emanate from societies hit by climate change, increasing urbanisation, globalisation and trade, land use change, energy transition, as well as changing attitudes and demands related to forests and their ESs. The natural and social spheres co-evolve and interact in complex and sometimes unexpected ways to create risks and wicked problems (impossible to solve). These challenges call for new approaches that systematically integrate the social sciences into forest research. Future Forests therefore consistently views and conceptualises forests as social-ecological systems (SESs, s. Box 1) in which social, economic, and ecological components are truly interconnected and co-evolving. With a focus on decision-making in the context of uncertainties and societal ambiguities regarding the management and governance of future forests, our Cluster strives to make pioneering contributions to the analysis of adapting forest SESs. The overarching research goal of Future Forests is to generate essential and generic knowledge and tools for the analysis, development, and assessment of possible adaptation and transformation pathways (A&TPs) (s. Box 2) of forest SESs to ensure landscapes with biodiverse forests that provide healthy living conditions. Structured in three research areas, our Cluster focusses on the analyses of: a) Current and future risks to ES provision and adaptation options to increase resilience and adaptive capacity of novel forest SESs, b) The evidentiary basis, normative principles, and practices of decision-making for novel forest SESs by different actors, c) Possible A&TPs towards resilient and adaptive forest SESs, consequences of these path-ways on ESs provision, and suitable governance options. Our work focusses initially on two hotspots of projected climate change impacts, Germany’s Black Forest and Upper Rhine valley. Both feature a unique density of environmental information and a broad network of stakeholders for surveying, co-creation of research design, and governance experiments. Our innovative research and analysis tools and our strong international network form the basis for transferring the adaptation solutions to other parts of the world and other land-use types.
DFG Programme Clusters of Excellence (ExStra)
Applicant Institution Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg
 
 

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