Mercury rising – The effects of heat waves and extreme temperatures on mental health, cognition and local climate investments in countries of the Global South

• Applicant: Dr. Manuela Fritz
• Subject Area: Economic Policy, Applied Economics ; Public Health, Healthcare Research, Social and Occupational Medicine
• Term: since 2023
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 537845359

This project aims to answer the question of how heat waves and extreme temperatures affect mental health and cognition and whether heat waves also affect economic investment decisions in climate adaptation measures of individuals living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). As global temperatures continue to rise and heat events become more frequent and severe, it is crucial to understand the multiple channels through which they will affect people's lives and well-being. In particular, it is imperative from a social and humanitarian perspective to shift the research focus towards LMICs, which contribute the least to climate change, but will be the most severely affected by it. Mental health and cognition are crucial for long-term economic development. Mental well-being and cognition relate to higher human capital and economic returns, expectations regarding the future and hence savings, investments and other dimensions of economic decisions. Hence, while heat waves could reduce well-being directly through impacts on mental health and cognition, directly and indirectly they could also deteriorate economic well-being through multiple channels. This project sets outs to assess these complex channels through three subprojects. Subproject 1 analyzes how heat waves affect psychological distress, anxiety and depression and investigates which individuals are most vulnerable to experiencing adverse mental health effects. Subproject 2 evaluates the effects of extreme temperatures on adults’ cognitive performance. Subproject 3 investigates whether heat waves affect individuals’ investment decisions for climate adaptation measures and whether this relationship is mediated by cognitive and mental impairments caused by heat. This project uses quasi-experimental and survey research methods. Subprojects 1 and 2 rely on the combination of secondary survey data from multiple LMICs with satellite-based data on heat waves and other climatic conditions, such as humidity. Subproject 3 relies on primary survey data and investment games in the field which will be linked to observational temperature and humidity data measured via sensors. The countries covered in this project encompass China, Ghana, India, Mexico, South Africa and Vietnam – representing some of the most populous countries in the world. Thereby, this project makes three contributions. First, this project will provide novel empirical evidence on the impact of heat waves and extreme temperatures on mental health and cognition and how this links to climate investment decisions in the context of the Global South. Second, this project will use three different quasi-experimental methods and real-life data from primary and secondary household surveys, and is thereby able to derive causal evidence. Third, by combining data from multiple countries of the Global South, this project will derive conclusions and recommendations that are externally valid for a large share of the world’s population.

• DFG Programme: WBP Position