False Consensus Beliefs in Politics and Their Effects on Legitimacy

• Applicant: Professorin Dr. Claudia Landwehr
• Subject Area: Political Science
• Term: since 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 513092447

Following the BEL-model, Subproject G2 “False Consensus Beliefs” hypothesizes that in a globalized and digitalized information environment (driver: globalization & technological change), selective exposure to information about societal preferences (externality) causes false consensus beliefs that negatively affect the legitimacy of democratic institutions, which may, in turn, lead to disruptive big structural change (BISC). By false consensus beliefs (FCBs), we refer to false beliefs about a majority of others sharing own opinions. While the human tendency towards overestimating support for one’s own views is well-established by a voluminous literature in social psychology, the potential consequences of this tendency for political legitimacy have received little attention. In line with the conflict-escalation hypothesis (CEH), we hypothesize that the legitimacy of political institutions central for the societal structure may be questioned, and compliance with them withdrawn, when individuals hold FCBs, which could lead to disruptive BISC. As a bridging project, G2 also addresses the conflict-abatement hypothesis (CAH), in that it explores how FCBs can be reduced, and legitimacy re-established, so that BISC is incremental. The subproject com-bines analytical modeling including agent-based models for theoretical insights, observational analyses of survey data for inferences about patterns in the general population, and analyses of survey and laboratory experiments for causal identification. Overall, the subproject will provide a better understanding of the political consequences of FCBs, thereby promising to uncover mechanisms that may link changing information environments with (demands for) disruptive political change.

• DFG Programme: Research Units
• Subproject of: FOR 5622: Big Structural Change
• International Connection: Switzerland
• Co-Investigators: Professor Dr. Philipp Harms; Professor Dr. Roland Imhoff; Professor Dr. Johannes Marx
• Cooperation Partner: Professorin Dr. Hannah Werner