SPP 1167:  Quantitative Precipitation Forecast PQP (Praecipitationis Quantitativae Praedictio)

• Subject Area: Geosciences
• Term: from 2004 to 2010
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 5472089

Water is the prerequisite for the major processes of life. The atmosphere regulates the availability of water above all through precipitation. Therefore, predictability of the atmosphere in general and of precipitation in particular is of extraordinary societal, economic and social significance. Further development of meteorological forecasting methods and observation systems has constantly improved the quality of short-range (up to 3 days) and medium-range (up to 10 days) weather forecast, e.g. for temperature and wind, in the past years. In contrast, precipitation forecast still is associated with the same deficiencies than 16 years ago. Quantitative precipitation forecast is of such poor quality that it can hardly be used for many applications. Presently, deficiencies include (a) the incomplete modellings of the components of the water cycle, (b) gaps, non-resolved structures, and errors of the initial fields, (c) inadequate methods of optimally linking observations with forecast models (assimilation of data into models), but also (d) basic problems in the understanding and interpretation of deterministic weather forecast models. Therefore the Priority Programme has the following superordinate scientific objectives:
-- identification of physical and chemical processes responsible for the deficiencies in quantitative precipitation forecast
-- determination and use of the potentials of existing and new data and process descriptions to improve quantitative precipitation forecast
-- determination of the prognosis capacity of weather forecast models by statistico-dynamic analyses with respect to quantitative precipitation forecast
The Priority Programme has a very close cooperation with the German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD). DWD makes available its operational forecast system and a supercomputer environment to universities and research institutes.

• DFG Programme: Priority Programmes
• International Connection: Austria, Belgium, Switzerland, USA

Projects

• 4-dimensional remote sensing based on the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) for studying convective initiation in complex terrain (Applicant Behrendt, Ph.D., Andreas )
• Aerosol and vertical-velocity profiling and cloud glaciation observations during COPS (Applicant Ansmann, Albert )
• Contribution of lower and upper tropospheric forcing to the initiation and inhibition of convection over complex terrain (Applicant Barthlott, Christian )
• Coordination of the SPP 1167: Study of the process chain and predictability of precipitation by combining the D-PHASE ensemble and the COPS data sets in the COPS domain (Applicants Lautenschlager, Michael ;  Rotach, Mathias ;  Steinacker, Reinhold ;  Wulfmeyer, Volker )
• Data Assimilation and Ensemble Modelling for the Improvement of Short Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (DAQUA) (Applicants Craig, George ;  Elbern, Ph.D., Hendrik ;  Leuenberger, Daniel ;  Schraff, Christoph ;  Simmer, Clemens )
• Development of a new hybrid cumulus parameterization scheme for use in nonhydrostatic weather prediction models (Applicant Bott, Andreas )
• Development of a resolution-dependent parameterisation for surface fluxes with inclusion of sub-grid-scale land-use effects (Applicant Schlünzen, Katharina Heinke )
• Evaluation of the life cycle of deep convection over mountainous terrain using radar, lidar and lightning observations (Applicant Hagen, Martin )
• Generation and validation of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts using breeding and Ensemble Kalman methods with the global model GME (Applicant Marotzke, Jochem )
• Generation, validation and calibration of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts using breeding and Ensemble Kalman methods with the global model GME (Applicants Hense, Andreas N. ;  Marotzke, Jochem ;  Rhodin, Andreas )
• High-resolution Reanalyses and Impact Studies for Improving Process Understanding and Precipitation Forecast Skill based on the COPS Data Set (Applicants Gendt, Gerd ;  Stephan, Klaus ;  Wulfmeyer, Volker )
• Hybrid probabilistic forecast scheme for postfrontal shower precipitation (Applicant Hauf, Thomas )
• Investigation of the influence of new active remote sensing instruments on numerical weather prediction models (Applicant Dörnbrack, Andreas )
• Mechanisms and prediction of precipitation over complex terrain (Applicant Kunz, Michael )
• Multi-scale analysis of the impact of soil moisture and boundary layer processes on convective precipitation (Applicant Kottmeier, Christoph )
• Multiple scales analysis of precipitating clouds: Feasibility study for selected cloud types (Applicants Etling, Dieter ;  Klein, Rupert )
• Multiple scales analysis of precipitating clouds: Feasibility study for selected cloud types (Applicant Etling, Dieter )
• New insights into precipitation development as affected by novel investigations on the limitation of large raindrops' sizes (Applicants Beheng, Klaus Dieter ;  Weigand, Bernhard )
• On the potential of total lightning data for nowcasting of thunderstorms and precipitation. Part II: Assessment of the benefit of total lightning using a MOS (Model Output Statistics) approach. (Applicant Hauf, Thomas )
• Operation of two Doppler on Wheels (DOW) mobile X-band radars during COPS (Applicant Wulfmeyer, Volker )
• Precipitation forecast toolbox within the testbed for experimental numerical weather forecast (NU-MEX) (Applicant Joppich, Wolfgang )
• Preconditions to GPS water vapour tomography with a resolution relevant for data assimilation in weather forecast models (Applicant Raabe, Armin )
• Quantification of topographic effects on predicted precipitation for typical Elbe-catchments in the Erzgebirge (Applicant Tetzlaff, Gerd )
• Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts using multi-dimensional remote sensing observations (Applicant Craig, George )
• Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts using multi-dimensional remote sensing observations (Applicant Fischer, Jürgen )
• Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts using multi-dimensional remote sensing observations (QUEST) (Applicants Ament, Felix ;  Craig, George ;  Crewell, Susanne ;  Fischer, Jürgen ;  Seifert, Axel )
• Quantitative Precipitation forecast (Applicant Hense, Andreas N. )
• Quantitative precipitation forecasts, ensemble forecast modelling, Bayesian chains, evolutionary algorithms, variational assimilation, physical initialisation nudging, application of Radar and satellite data (Applicant Elbern, Ph.D., Hendrik )
• Quantitative precipitation forecasts, ensemble forecast modelling, Bayesian chains, evolutionary algorithms, variational assimilation, physical initialisation nudging, application of Radar and satellite data (Applicant Craig, George )
• Quantitative precipitation forecasts, ensemble forecast modelling, Bayesian chains, evolutionary algorithms, variational assimilation, physical initialisation nudging, application of Radar and satellite data (Applicant Wergen, Werner )
• Quantitative precipitation forecasts, ensemble forecast modelling, Bayesian chains, evolutionary algorithms, variational assimilation, physical initialisation nudging, application of Radar and satellite data (Applicant Rotach, Mathias )
• Scientific preparation and coordination of the SPP 1167 Intensive Observations Period (IOP) (Applicant Kottmeier, Christoph )
• Sensitivities of deep convective systems on temperature stratification, surface parameters and orography (Applicant Blahak, Ulrich )
• Short-range QPF by combining observations of water vapour, wind and clouds with advanced methods in data assimilation (Applicant Kottmeier, Christoph )
• Simulation of topography-induced convection in the COPS area (STICCA) (Applicant Heinemann, Günther )
• Spectral microphysics in forecast models with special emphasis on cloud droplet nucleation (Applicant Knoth, Oswald )
• Statistical-dynamical methods for scale dependent model evaluation and short term precipitation forecasting (STAMPF) (Applicant Cubasch, Ulrich )
• Stochastic Parameterisation of Precipitation in Ensemble Simulations with an Intermediate Complexity General Circulation Model (Applicant Fraedrich, Klaus )
• Streamflow data assimilation for numerical weather prediction models (Applicant Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten )
• The influence of aerosols - cloud interactions on precipitation formation and predictability (Applicant Langmann, Bärbel )
• The verification of precipitation forecasts from numerical models on short time-scales over Germany with pattern-oriented error measures (Applicant Wernli, Heini )
• Turbulent Fluxes and thermal convection in a valley (Applicants Foken, Thomas ;  Wirth, Volkmar )

• Spokesperson: Professor Dr. Andreas N. Hense