State-waged wars in depoliticized authoritarian contexts: How do Russians support and oppose Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?

• Applicant: Svetlana Erpyleva, Ph.D.
• Subject Area: Empirical Social Research
• Term: since 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 547748581

Ever since Russia launched its war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, one of the pertinent but hard to answer questions has been whether the Russian population genuinely supports their government’s decision. However, what the majority of discussions about this question miss is that the perception of the war by many Russians is passive and inconsistent. As all reputable surveys show, Russian society consists of two minorities of core supporters and opponents respectively, while the majority lacks a coherent position. This majority both justifies and condemns various aspects of the war simultaneously: they wish for Russia’s victory but prefer the war had never occurred at the same time. This paradox in war perception can be explained by the relationship between Russian society and a political regime, which, like many other authoritarian regimes, still largely relies on passive loyalty from a disengaged and politically skeptical population. The scholarly literature on state-waged war perception is only partially helpful in understanding how this inconsistent and paradoxical war perception functions in Russia because it is predominantly based on insights from Western democracies and is thus not directly applicable to authoritarian contexts. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the majority of the available research on war perception in Russia is based on survey data. While surveys are well-suited for outlining the basic trends of a society, they need to be combined with qualitative methods to grasp more of the complexity, discrepancies, and contradictions behind people’s attitudes. This project thus proposes to analyze an original and unique qualitative dataset on war perception in Russia that has already been collected by a team led by the applicant over the years 2022/23. The analysis will use three main methods: thematic coding, discourse analysis, and narrative analysis. The dataset comprises 370 in-depth sociological interviews with Russians holding diverse views on the Russo-Ukrainian war, possessing various socio-demographic characteristics, and residing in different Russian regions. The project aims to (1) elucidate the mechanisms behind the paradoxical and inconsistent war perception in Russia and (2) develop a theory of depoliticized support for and opposition to state-waged wars under authoritarianism, utilizing Russia as a case study. In essence, this theory will explain how an authoritarian regime—while initiating an unpopular war and politicizing certain segments of society—is still able to rely on the passive support of the majority of the population. This theory will bridge the literature on state-waged war perception, legitimacy of authoritarian regimes, and Russian authoritarianism specifically. The theory will contribute to an academic understanding of the mechanisms behind support and opposition to state-waged wars in non-democratic contexts.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants