EtaPPP: Establishment of the BSW: Programme, Personalisation and Populism

• Applicants: Dr. Jan Philipp Thomeczek; Privatdozent Dr. Aiko Wagner
• Subject Area: Political Science
• Term: since 2025
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 554811122

In our project "EtaPPP", we aim to analyse whether and to what extent the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) can establish itself within the German party system and what consequences this might have for the established parties. We focus on three core factors: programmatic positioning, populism, and personalisation – the PPP factors. Our analysis focuses on both the supply and demand side and their interaction. On the demand side, we differentiate between potential and actual voters of the BSW in the context of the 2025 Bundestag election. On the supply side, we will examine the party as a collective actor and its internal heterogeneity. Regarding programmatic positioning, we currently observe tendencies that the BSW is positioning itself as a left-authoritarian party. Since BSW’s positioning on many issues is still vague, we aim to explore where the BSW stands and how this develops over time. Foreign policy issues, which play a significant role for the BSW, are of particular importance here. We investigate the programmatic congruence between potential voters and the BSW and assess which issue positions present opportunities or risks. From a political science perspective, the BSW is currently classified as a populist party. We intend to further investigate how populist the BSW is compared to the highly populist AfD and moderately populist Left Party and what developments can be observed during the establishment phases. We also explore the role of populist individual attitudes in voting for the BSW. The BSW exhibits a high degree of personalisation around its founder, a phenomenon not observed to this extent in any other relevant party in Germany. Thus, we examine the impact of Wagenknecht's popularity on BSW's electoral success. We will also analyse whether changes occur over time, such as a decrease in personalisation or its replacement by programmatic factors. We use a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and quantitative analysis methods. The core involves analysing text-centred political communication (press releases, social media posts, manifestos, talk show appearances) and positional classification (CHES, MAPOR) on the supply side, and working with secondary data (GLES, EES) and collecting our own data on the demand side. To identify causal effects of BSW's communication on voting intentions, we will employ a vignette analysis. Our project spans 36 months, with the 2025 Bundestag election as the main reference point. This period allows us to assess how well the BSW has established itself during this phase, whether it has, for example, entered the Bundestag, gained relevance for coalition considerations in some federal states, or experienced splits. During the same timeframe, we were able to observe the most relevant establishment milestones for the AfD, the last case of a new party that managed to establish itself in Germany.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: Italy
• Cooperation Partner: Jessica Di Cocco, Ph.D.