Militaries and democratic backsliding since the end of the Cold War (MILBACK)

• Applicants: Professor Dr. Aurel Croissant; Dr. David Kühn
• Subject Area: Political Science
• Term: since 2025
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 557364627

Since the end of the Cold War, the world has witnessed a troubling rise in "democratic backsliding," where the institutions and procedures that uphold existing democracies are weakened or dismantled. While much of this erosion is driven by elected leaders, militaries remain crucial actors, often through anti-democratic coups, as seen in Thailand (2014), Turkey (2016), and Niger (2023). However, beyond classical and promissory coups, other forms of military involvement in democratic backsliding have gained prominence since the 1990s. These include military support for the suspension of democracy by incumbents, such as in Peru (1992) and El Salvador (2020), and instances where militaries have acted to preserve democracy, as in Ecuador (2005) and Sri Lanka (2015). These examples highlight the varied roles militaries can play in the erosion, breakdown, or survival of democracy. In this project, we will systematically analyze military roles in all democratic backsliding episodes since the end of the Cold War. Studying 26 episodes of democratic erosion and 28 cases of democratic breakdown since 1991, we will answer three key questions: 1. What roles have militaries played in democratic backsliding episodes since 1991? 2. What explains these different roles? 3. What are the implications of such roles for the outcomes of democratic backsliding? To answer these questions, we will 1. conceptualize the different military roles in episodes of democratic backsliding; 2. create the original MILBACK dataset on military roles in all 54 democratic backsliding episodes since the end of the Cold War; 3. construct a game-theoretical model to explain military roles in democratic backsliding and test it empirically in a systematic multi-method design relying on the MILBACK data; and 4. assess the impact of different forms of military involvement on the erosion, collapse, or resilience of democracy during and after backsliding episodes through a multi-methods research design including inferential statistics, comparative case studies and process-tracing analysis. The project will produce three key deliverables: 1. Publications: Five peer-reviewed journal articles, a book manuscript, and the original MILBACK dataset will be made available for further research. 2. Knowledge Exchange: Policy briefs, blogs, videos, and presentations will be created to aid democracy defenders in affected countries and democracy supporters from abroad. 3. Academic Training: The project will support two doctoral dissertations, several master theses and promote the early career development of the post-doc researcher. Special attention will be given to the promotion of diversity and equal opportunity.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants