Project Details
Projekt
Observations, Remote Sensing, plot based modelling and socio-economic scenarios
Subject Area
Ecology and Biodiversity of Plants and Ecosystems
Term
since 2025
Project identifier
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 386807763
Climate change (CC) and unsustainable land use threaten biodiversity in the Mountain Rain- (MRF) and Dry Forest (MDF) hotspot of SE-Ecuador. At the same time, changes in traits and biotic processes will feed back into the atmosphere. The main objective of Syn-A1 is to synthesize the knowledge gained from previous RU phases to reveal how the two target functions (TFs), latent heat flux and biomass production, are related to abiotic drivers, how they are affected by climate change and land use intensity, and to develop optimized land use scenarios under CC that help to improve ecosystem resistance. Syn-A1 brings together the expertise of the former A1 and A5 subprojects (SP), which have achieved significant results. A1 has provided climatological datasets, analyzed TFs using eddy covariance (ECov) data, and contributed to the development of the biodiversity-informed LSM (HUMBOL-TD) with the LSMAtmo submodel, its parameterization with field data (optical leaf traits), its calibration and its testing with ECov data. A1 also developed a use case for the data warehouse to provide gridded climate data for the statistical analyses of the B SPs, and produced trait maps based on hyperspectral remote sensing for testing the area-wide LSM. A5 improved the land use model for the MRF, developed the land use concept for the MDF, created baseline land use allocation scenarios, and built the first area-wide land use scenarios for 2045. In the synthesis phase, Syn-A1 will continue to provide climate data for the analyses of Syn-B1 and Syn-B2. Further ECov data will be collected for testing the plot-based HUMBOL-TD model in areas of different land cover and for the new area-wide LSM of Syn-A2. Model refinement, testing and evaluation will be closely coordinated with Syn-A2. Syn-A1 will perform plot-based HUMBOL-TD runs for moderate and extreme climate developments in different future scenarios to reveal the resistance of TFs due to CC and the intensity of unsustainable land use. The model output will be used to develop the optimized land use scenarios and determine the expected increase in TF resistance. A key point is establishing the spatially explicit grids of optimized land use scenarios in collaboration with Syn-A2. Area-wide testing of the LSM in Syn-A2 will be supported by the generation of gridded remotely sensed leaf trait time series. Developments during the previous phases suggested that CC in the study area will be dominated by ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) extremes. Therefore, we will extend our analysis by also looking into the past using a time series of remotely sensed products related to the TFs to determine the resistance of the TFs using ENSO extremes as a surrogate for CC (extremes-for-time approach). Finally, Syn-A1 will compare the test results with those of Syn-A2 and the statistical models (Syn-B1, -B2) as a final consistency test of the RU.
DFG Programme
Research Units
