Causal factors influencing the use of negative campaigning in the campaign communication of candidates running in state elections

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Jürgen Maier
• Subject Area: Political Science
• Term: since 2025
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 560222577

Research on negative campaigning is largely unanimous in assuming that attacks on political opponents are the result of cost-benefit trade-offs. Observable differences in candidates' attack behavior are interpreted post hoc using rational choice theory as causal effects of different incentive structures present at the micro level (social and political profile of candidates) and/or the macro level (campaign context, opponent profile). However, recent research suggests that candidates do not always behave rationally, thus the empirical content of the rational choice approach is limited. Studies that empirically examine the causal relationship between incentive structures and negative campaigning, which is based on cost-benefit considerations and propagated in the literature, are not available. First, the proposed project aims to close this research gap. The data basis for this are surveys of candidates running for state parliaments. In this surveys, candidates are specifically asked about the extent and design of their negative campaign communication. At the same time, comprehensive information on the candidate profile and the individual perception of the election campaign will be collected. On the one hand, the goal is to build a panel data set that includes candidates who participated in a state election between 2021 and 2024 and who will run again in the next state election between 2026 and 2028. Second, vignette experiments on the use of negative campaigning will be conducted as part of the candidate surveys for the 2026-2028 state elections. The two data sources will be used to address the question of the causal effect of influencing factors identified to date. Second, the proposed project will identify additional factors influencing the use of negative campaigning. The focus is on the role of ideological and affective polarization, which are seen from different sides as new and threatening developments for democracy. Both forms of polarization are also associated with negative campaign communication. A few, empirical findings on this are available for the U.S., but not for other countries - partly because suitable measurements for the polarization of political elites in parliamentary democracies and parallel data on candidates' attack behavior are lacking. The analysis of ideological and affective polarization as further factors potentially influencing negative campaigning is embedded in the Comprehensive Model of Candidate Attack Behavior (COMCAB) proposed by the applicant, which describes and empirically tests mechanisms beyond rational choice considerations that can lead to the use of attack strategies.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants