CYBERSHAKE - CyberShake and SeisSol for physics-based fault-rupture and ground-motion simulations at the Eastern Margin of the Adriatic Plate using Supercomputing

• Applicant: Dr. Claudia Abril
• Subject Area: Geophysics
• Term: since 2025
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 560293909

We intend to conduct physics-based fault-rupture ground-motion simulations of potential earthquakes that could affect the eastern margin of the Adriatic Plate. Our simulations would focus on earthquakes nucleated on the Scutari-Pec Fault System (at the Dinarides-Hellenides Transition) and the Kefalonia Transform Fault System (at the Oceanic Continental Transition). Simulations of earthquakes from these sources can provide valuable information for future seismic hazard studies in the eastern Adriatic, a densely populated region with an increasing number of inhabitants. For seismic hazard studies, ground motions are traditionally predicted using empirical equations derived from observations. However, earthquake databases are scarce regarding near-fault records and observations of high-magnitude events. This proposal suggests an alternative methodology for predicting ground motions by simulating deterministic potential scenarios with the CyberShake platform and the SeisSol code. CyberShake and SeisSol can simulate thousands of scenarios on HPC facilities, allowing for the exploration of a wide range of possible source rupture and propagation parameters. On one hand, CyberShake uses the reciprocity principle to efficiently explore multiple scenarios suitable for subsequent seismic hazard analysis. On the other hand, SeisSol enables to investigate kinematic and dynamic scenarios for the source rupture. Both simulation tools employ suitable meshing strategies to accurately simulate wave propagation. The Anelastic Wave Propagation (AWP) code, which is part of CyberShake, uses a staggered-grid mesh that allows for a finer cell size in the slower, shallower crustal layers. SeisSol employs a tetrahedral grid that enables higher resolution in areas near the fault source. We will collect the most up-to-date geological, geophysical, and geodetic information available for the region to select on the earthquake scenarios of interest for our simulations. We will compare our results with observations recorded by the AdriaArray mission and other seismological networks deployed in the area. Additionally, we will calibrate our results by comparing them with empirical Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs). This investigation is expected to be conducted during the first phase of the DEFORM Priority Programme, which will lay the groundwork for seismic and tsunami hazard studies to be carried out during the programme's second phase. Moreover, we will store our results in a Simulation Data Lake that will allow organized access for future use in other studies.

• DFG Programme: Priority Programmes
• Subproject of: SPP 2497: Plate Deformation and Geohazards: The Eastern Margin of the Adriatic Plate (DEFORM)
• International Connection: Italy, Spain, USA
• Co-Investigators: Professor Dr. Michael Bader; Dr. Alice-Agnes Gabriel; Professor Dr. Heiner Igel
• Cooperation Partners: Dr. Abdelkrim Aoudia, Ph.D.; Professor Dr. Kim Bak Olsen; Dr. Josep de la Puente