Violent Delinquency in Adolescence: A Longitudinal Cohort Study (VIDACO)

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Clemens Kroneberg
• Subject Area: Criminology
• Term: since 2025
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 563323733

The post-pandemic increase in police-recorded child and youth crime in Germany has sparked scientific, public, and political debates. Both the existence and extent of this increase, as well as its potential causes, remain unclear, particularly due to the lack of comparable dark field studies that allow to capture underlying mechanisms. Against this background, the project proposes a longitudinal multi-cohort study which starts from a regional longitudinal study conducted from 2013 to 2016 at secondary schools. The latter allows for a meaningful comparison due to its high response rates and measurement of relevant constructs. The new surveys collect data on more than 3,500 students in over 200 school classes in three cities of the Ruhr area. The study aims to examine (1) whether the extent and acceptance of violence among adolescents have actually increased in the past 10 years, (2) whether this is particularly true for specific groups or if there has been a general shift in the normative climate, and (3) whether systematic differences exist between cohorts, which can be attributed to the developmental stage they were in during the COVID-19 pandemic. The descriptive analysis of the prevalence and incidence of violent offenses differentiates between changes in multiple and single offenses, as well as their socio-demographic correlates. To determine the prevailing normative climate and its changes, the project will use both established measures of attitudes toward violence as well as network data on social relationships within the school grade. Longitudinal network analyses will capture changes in school and class climate by examining how the attractiveness of students as friends and their perceived popularity within the grade depend on their attitudes toward and engagement in violent behaviors. To assess potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected school cohorts will be surveyed, focusing on those who were at different developmental stages during school closures, which particularly disrupted elementary schools in their socializing, diagnostic, preventive, and supportive roles. A cohort comparison will examine whether cohorts whose elementary education was interrupted early show a higher prevalence and incidence of violence, greater acceptance of violence, or lower self-control. Beyond addressing these research questions, the collected data will enable a range of additional analyses on criminologically relevant topics and will therefore be prepared for and made accessible to the scientific community.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants