Citizens’ Demand for Local Representation and the Green Transition: Amplifying Voice or Delaying Action?

• Applicant: Dr. Lukas Rudolph
• Subject Area: Political Science
• Term: since 2025
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 563356387

Spatial inequalities are prevalent in many established democracies, often leading to place-based resentment and urban-rural polarization. The Green Transition may exacerbate these divides by imposing localized costs in exchange for diffuse, future benefits. Recent studies highlight that the distributional impacts of the Green Transition could significantly hinder its implementation. This project examines the role of local political representation in this context, focusing on the demand side: citizens' preferences. We start from the fundamental ambiguity that while local representation may give a voice to disadvantaged groups, it could also reflect parochial views that obstruct the broader goal of a greener society. Conceptually, we differentiate between electoral support for local candidates and demand for local representation. Our first objective is to analyze the electoral home advantage of candidates and its variation across space and time, particularly in relation to spatial inequalities and the impact of infrastructure projects with perceived local costs. Our second objective is to investigate the nature of the demand for local representation and its effects on the Green Transition, assessing whether local representation facilitates or hinders climate change mitigation efforts. The empirical focus is on the German state of Bavaria, a case exceptionally well-suited for our purposes. In elections to the Bavarian state parliament, citizens can choose among multiple candidates within parties. This setup allows for a long-term analysis (1966-2023) of support for local representatives at a higher level. Additionally, Bavaria has undergone significant economic and social change during this period, providing a promising context to examine the effects of spatial inequality. The presence of large-scale green infrastructure projects facilitates realistic survey experiments to assess underlying mechanisms. The project is organized into two work packages (WPs) with distinct temporal foci and evidence types. WP1 will analyze aggregate behavioral data from past elections using quasi-experimental methods to identify contextual factors influencing local political support. WP2 will gather original micro-level data with two survey-embedded experiments focused on Green Transition projects. These will reveal mechanisms behind the demand for local representation and contribute to further theory development while addressing highly relevant real-world questions. The project will contribute to a better understanding of local representation and the complex relationship between the preferences of citizens, politicians, and policy in the context of the Green Transition. Led by a team with a track record of excellent joint publications, the output will consist of at least six journal articles plus several novel datasets. Our findings will inform debates on spatial inequalities, effective implementation of climate change mitigation policies, and institutional reform.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: Ireland
• Cooperation Partner: Dr. Thomas Däubler, Ph.D.