Ecologically plausible behavioral and neural evidence for confidence matching in joint decision-making

• Applicant: Privatdozent Bahador Bahrami, Ph.D.
• Subject Area: Human Cognitive and Systems Neuroscience ; General, Cognitive and Mathematical Psychology ; Social Psychology, Industrial and Organisational Psychology
• Term: since 2026
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 565411681

This project explores the mechanisms that enable individuals to share and align confidence in joint decision-making under uncertainty. Building on prior research that demonstrated confidence matching using artificial partners, this study transitions to face-to-face human interaction, adding ecological validity to the findings. The research aims to uncover the cognitive and neural processes that underpin socially negotiated confidence alignment, with a focus on naturalistic and dynamic social settings. The study comprises two experiments. Experiment 1 employs a dynamic random dot motion (RDM) paradigm in a face-to-face setting to examine how confidence alignment emerges behaviorally. Noise is introduced into confidence communication to test robustness. Experiment 2 extends these findings to the neural domain using dual EEG hyperscanning and pupillometry to identify signatures of confidence alignment, including centro-parietal positivity (CPP) components. Both experiments integrate computational models of confidence updating and alignment, providing a mechanistic account of the observed phenomena. This project addresses gaps in the current understanding of joint decision-making by incorporating real human-human interaction and testing ecological validity. By introducing noise to confidence communication, the study probes the resilience of confidence matching mechanisms. Furthermore, the integration of cognitive modeling with neural data offers a multi-level perspective on confidence negotiation. The research will produce robust evidence for confidence matching under realistic social conditions, elucidate the neural correlates of this alignment, and offer predictive models of confidence dynamics. These findings have implications for enhancing collaborative decision-making in high-stakes environments. Led by an established research team with a strong publication record in social neuroscience, the project leverages state-of-the-art facilities at LMU, including dual-EEG and eye-tracking systems. The outcomes will contribute to theoretical advancements in social neuroscience and practical applications in fields such as organizational decision-making and artificial intelligence. The project represents a critical step in bridging the gap between controlled experimental paradigms and real-world social interactions, offering a comprehensive framework for understanding how humans adaptively share and align confidence.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants