Transient edges in Europe’s forests: dynamics and impacts

• Applicants: Professor Dr. Andreas Huth; Professor Dr. Rupert Seidl
• Subject Area: Forestry
• Term: since 2025
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 567388988

Climate change profoundly alters disturbance regimes, with distinct implications for the structure of forest ecosystems. One prominent impact of high severity disturbances is the creation of edges. These disturbance-created edges differ from the well-studied edges between forests and other land-cover types: They are transient in space and time, as they often move when subsequent disturbances enlarge disturbed patches, and as they disappear again as the trees regenerating on a disturbed patch grow up. Transient edges could affect forest carbon storage by influencing carbon uptake and release from adjacent forests, constituting a still poorly understood impact of forest disturbances. Here, our objectives are (i) to quantify the prevalence and dynamics of transient edges in Europe’s forests, (ii) to assess their impacts on forest carbon storage, and (iii) to project the development of transient forest edges in Europe considering different climate scenarios and management regimes. We harness the latest remote sensing data on canopy disturbance to detect current transient edges in Europe’s forests. We furthermore assess transient edge dynamics in space and time by combining remotely sensed information on gap expansion with information on forest recovery as an indicator for the persistence of transient edges. We subsequently leverage a unique Lidar dataset, covering more than 800,000 ha of forests across all major European biomes, in order to assess the impact of transient edges on forest carbon storage. Finally, we simulate continental-scale forest development under a range of climate scenarios using a next-generation, AI-based forest simulation model. Using scenario analysis, we will also study how adapted forest management influences the future development of transient edges. The project addresses an important but hitherto often overlooked impact of changing forest disturbance regimes in Europe, contributing to a better understanding of the effects of global change on Europe’s forest ecosystems.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants