Changing Notions and Practices of Defence and Security in Finland and the Baltic States since 2014

• Applicant: Professorin Dr. Anna Geis
• Subject Area: Political Science
• Term: since 2025
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 544962752

The Russian aggression against Ukraine has global and regional repercussions and increases threat perceptions in neighbouring states. Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania share land borders with Russia and are by now all members of the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). The project investigates the evolution of comprehensive defence efforts in these four Northern states in the wake of the Russian aggression against Ukraine since 2014. It aims to assess the implications of these developments for state-society relations. A central aspect is the increasing expectation that citizens share responsibility for the defence and security of the state. Two key research questions are explored: (a) How do these states seek to strengthen their military-based promise of security, including through collective defence and security frameworks (NATO, EU)? (b) How, where, and when do they engage citizens and civil society actors to support and complement these efforts? To address these questions, the study examines both coercive and incentivising measures that shape citizens’ contribution to national defence and societal resilience. Furthermore, the project problematises the ambivalent consequences of these developments. It scrutinises the reallocation of state budgets under conditions of resource scarcity, the risk of excluding Russian-speaking minorities and dissenting citizens who might perceive these efforts as “militarisation”, and the potential for conflicts among state authorities and different levels of governance regarding the implementation of these changes. By analysing these dynamics, the study provides a nuanced understanding of evolving “co-productive” security promises in the region and their broader socio-political ramifications in catastrophic times of existential threats. Case studies research will employ qualitative document and content analysis for state strategy papers and reports, educational material, newspaper and parliamentary reports, and digital ethnography and automated multimodal content analysis for social media contents. During field research stays in the four countries, semi-structured expert interviews with representatives from state authorities, the military, the media and the education system will be conducted. Participant observation of citizens’ defence-related exercises will be pursued, if access is possible and timing allows. The national defence notions and security practices can be influenced by EU and NATO and minilateral cooperation across the Northern countries. Pertinent institutions located in the Baltic states or Finland underline NATO’s and EU’s efforts to increase resilience in face of “hybrid” threats. Expert interviews in Brussels with NATO and EU representatives will be conducted to assess the interactions between collective and national defence efforts in Northern Europe.

• DFG Programme: Research Units
• Subproject of: FOR 5870: The Promise of Security in Catastrophic Times