Autocratization, Policy Preferences, and the Performance of International Organizations (APPIO)

• Applicants: Professorin Dr. Maria J. Debre; Professor Dr. Thomas Sommerer
• Subject Area: Political Science
• Term: since 2025
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 568916224

The global trend of autocratization poses significant challenges to international cooperation. Domestic regime changes often reshape foreign policy preferences, also affecting engagement with international organizations (IOs). The proposed project, "Autocratization, Policy Preferences, and the Performance of International Organizations" (APPIO), investigates how shifts toward autocracy among IO member states influence policy outputs, bureaucratic outputs, and the legitimacy of IOs. While previous research has examined the contestation and withdrawal behaviors of autocratizing regimes, there is limited systematic understanding of how such changes affect IOs' capacity to address global governance challenges. This project employs a multi-method research design integrating large-N statistical analysis, automated text analysis, in-depth case studies, and experimental survey design to analyze the consequences of autocratization for IOs. The project aims to: (1) examine macro-level patterns linking autocratization with IO performance, (2) explore the micro-foundations of changing policy preferences among member states, (3) trace preference aggregation mechanisms in IO decision-making, and (4) assess how these changes influence IO legitimacy perceptions among citizens. APPIO makes four key contributions to the field. Conceptually, it distinguishes between populism, democratic backsliding, and autocratization, providing a nuanced understanding of their international effects. Theoretically, it develops a novel framework linking autocratization with IO output performance by identifying barriers, enabling conditions, and shifting state preferences. Methodologically, the project integrates cutting-edge techniques such as web-scraping, machine learning-based text analysis, and survey experiments with traditional regression analysis, case studies, and elite interviews. Empirically, it systematically maps autocratization trends across the membership 72 IOs from 2000 to 2025, offering new datasets on IO output performance and state sponsorship behavior. By enhancing our understanding of the effects of autocratization on global governance, this research has broad implications beyond academia. IOs play a crucial role in addressing transnational challenges such as climate change, pandemics, security threats, and economic crises. However, as they face growing contestation, their legitimacy increasingly depends on performance rather than procedural quality. This project provides essential insights into whether IOs can maintain their problem-solving capacity amidst the current wave of autocratization and whether their outputs continue to be accepted as legitimate by affected stakeholders.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants