Large Landslides, Climate Trends, and Anomalies (LINDA)

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Oliver Korup
• Subject Area: Physical Geography ; Geology
• Term: since 2025
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 569713268

This proposed project intends to test whether and how well we can attribute the timing of large, catastrophic landslides to contemporary climate trends or anomalies in a comparison across selected mountain regions. We identify three project objectives that arise from current research gaps concerning large landslides and climate change, i.e. (1) to test whether the frequency and magnitude of reported large, catastrophic landslides has been changing in selected mountain regions since 1900; (2) to estimate by how much any growth in the rate these reported large, catastrophic landslides reflects increases in regional population, documentation, and scientific monitoring; and (3) to investigate how reliably the occurrence of these documented large landslides can be attributed to climate anomalies, or trends in contemporary atmospheric warming. We use Bayesian inference in the form of extreme-value, count, and classification models to estimate from an unprecedented catalogue of ca. 9000 large landslides any credible changes in their magnitude and frequency since 1900. We also use climate re-analysis data to derive local decadal trends of temperature and precipitation at reported landslides sites and compare these antecedent conditions with nearby counterfactual sites of comparable setting, though without any large landslides. The main expected outcomes of this research include evidence for (or against) trends in the rates and size distribution of large, catastrophic landslides that have occurred since 1900, with regional variations and estimated effects of topographic and climatic setting, and preservation potential. Dedicated models will also estimate effects of potential sources of reporting bias, especially population and urban growth, increased scientific reporting and monitoring. The project will also estimate average contemporary return periods of large landslides for selected mountain regions; together with probabilistic estimates of how reliably these landslides can be attributed to climate trends or anomalies, or separated from known geophysical triggers.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants