Success of addiction therapy treatment in institutions for offenders - a criminological recidivism study

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Alexander Baur
• Subject Area: Criminology
• Term: since 2025
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 572506577

Despite the high legal and practical relevance of crime-preventive addiction treatment for offenders within the framework of criminal sanctions (including under Section 64 of the German Criminal Code), there are still significant empirical research gaps regarding its effectiveness, predictive validity, and forensic-therapeutic design. The proposed research project aims to address these substantial knowledge gaps by investigating the effectiveness of forensic substance abuse treatment. The objective is to identify person-specific characteristics and treatment-related factors that influence the likelihood of recidivism after release and to derive differentiated insights in this regard. To this end, recidivism data from the Bundeszentralregister will be linked with clinical and demographic information from the nationwide “Stichtagserhebung” (core dataset of forensic treatment institutions) for up to 2,000 individuals. Furthermore, the study seeks to examine the empirical basis on which a positive treatment prognosis—as required under Section 64, Sentence 2 StGB—can be established. While a range of risk factors, such as therapy refusal, cognitive impairments, or language barriers, have been identified, valid predictors of successful treatment outcomes remain largely unknown. This study aims to support judicial decision-making by providing empirically grounded indicators for treatment success, thereby contributing to a more evidence-based approach to treatment indication and assignment. A further focal point of the project lies in analyzing treatment-internal factors of effectiveness. The study will explore which elements of forensic treatment—such as the therapeutic relationship, ward climate, specific treatment methods, or pharmacological support—have a lasting positive impact on legal compliance following release. Both specific methodological approaches and broader contextual treatment factors will be considered. The overarching aim is to contribute to the development of more effective and efficient treatment options within forensic psychiatry. The project adopts a multidimensional research approach that integrates criminological, legal, and treatment-theoretical perspectives. The anticipated results promise not only substantial empirical insights into the effectiveness of crime-preventive addiction treatment for offenders but also offer a data-driven foundation for improving the forensic care of individuals with substance use disorders. In the long term, the findings are expected to inform more effective recidivism prevention and facilitate the development of evidence-based intervention strategies.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• Co-Investigators: Dr. Sabine Hohmann-Fricke; Dr. Christian Riedemann