Scenarios of the Global Water System

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Joseph Alcamo
• Subject Area: Hydrogeology, Hydrology, Limnology, Urban Water Management, Water Chemistry, Integrated Water Resources Management
• Term: from 2008 to 2010
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 82510942

The global water system is undergoing significant changes in its physical, chemical and biological characteristics, as well as in its human dimensions. The transformations currently taking place in the system raise key scientific questions: Will these changes continue at their current pace and intensity over the coming decades? If so, what impact will they have on nature and society? Researchers have begun addressing these questions through a growing number of comprehensive scenario studies that examine future trends in water resources from the continental and global perspectives. The first objective of this one year project is to review and appraise the existing body of global water scenarios in order to extract out important scientific insights, identify gaps and shortcomings, and derive scientific procedures for developing a new generation of global water scenarios. The second objective is to carry-out model experiments with an existing model to produce new continental scale water scenarios for Africa that address some of the deficits of current global water scenarios. The new scenarios will advance previous continental/global scenarios by simultaneously taking into account the effect of changing land use, climate and socioeconomic factors on future water use and water availability. Africa is selected as a case study for these model experiments because of the particularly significant changes it is experiencing in its freshwater system. To ensure that the information and perspectives of developing countries are taken into account, the principal investigator proposes to spend 7 months out of the 12-month project at the University of Stellenbosch in South Africa (residing at this university will provide advantages such as access to a network of African water researchers). It is critical for the German research community, especially researchers working on international and global-scale scientific problems, to develop stronger ties with the scientific community in developing countries. This project will provide direct scientific input to the Global Water System Project of the Earth System Science Partnership, as well as the World Water Development Report being prepared by a consortium of UN water-related organizations. This is an eigenständiges Projekt within the framework of the Global Water System Project of which the Antragssteller is Co-Chairman. It is expected that the evaluation of scenarios will make a major contribution to anticipating future changes in the global water system.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants