Nonparametric Identification and Inference in Duration Analysis

• Antragsteller: Professor Dr. Gerard J. van den Berg
• Fachliche Zuordnung: Statistik und Ökonometrie
• Förderung: Förderung von 2011 bis 2016
• Projektkennung: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Projektnummer 40095828

Econometric duration analysis focuses on the hazard rate of random variables that capture the time that a unit spends in a certain state, like the unemployment duration of an individual. The hazard rate as a function of explanatory variables and the elapsed duration can usually be interpreted in terms of economic theory. Often it is likely that some explanatory variables are unobserved. This creates well-known dynamic selection problems which lead to incorrect inference if ignored. Existing identification and estimation approaches that deal with this rely on ad-hoc Mixed Proportional Hazard assumptions. In this project we aim to move beyond these assumptions. We will develop identification results for models that allow for interactions between determinants of the hazard rate. We pay particular attention to identification and inference of treatment effects on duration outcomes.

• DFG-Verfahren: Forschungsgruppen
• Teilprojekt zu: FOR 916: Swiss-German Bilateral Research Unit on: Statistical Regularisation and Qualitative Constraints - Inference, Algorithms, Asymptotics and Applications