Political Reforms and the Decline of Mortality: Evidence from Swiss Cantons (1870-2000)

• Applicant: Professorin Christina Gathmann, Ph.D.
• Subject Area: Economic Policy, Applied Economics ; Economic and Social History
• Term: from 2013 to 2017
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 244446126

One of the most spectacular demographic changes in European history is the mortality decline. Life expectancy in Germany increased from 37 years in 1871 to 61.3 years in 1933; in Switzerland, it increased from around 40 years in 1875 to 63.4 years in 1945. In this research project, we analyze to what extent political reforms contributed to this mortality decline: the spread of proportional representation and direct voter participation in political decisions through direct elections, initiatives and referendums.Our empirical analysis will focus on Switzerland, the only country where subnational governments can choose their electoral system. Most importantly, we see considerable variation in political institutions over time. For example, 17 of the 25 cantons switched to proportional representation between 1890 and 1945. We exploit the timing of political reforms at the canton level in a difference-in-differences framework to estimate the causal effect of political institutions on age- and cause-specific mortality in the short- and long-run. For the empirical analysis, we will collect and digitize archival records on mortality, public finances and political institutions for all cantons between 1870 and 2000.We will also employ instrumental variables using constitutional reforms and reforms in neighboring states as an instrument for direct democracy and proportional representation. We then investigate the mechanisms how political institutions influence mortality, in particular through their effects on public health investments or educational attainment. Based on our estimates, we then calculate how much of the mortality decline can be explained by shifts to proportional representation, direct elections of the executive and direct democracy; and what role investments in public health and education play. As a final step of our analysis, we provide suggestive evidence on the external validity of our results, using a cross-country dataset for 12 European countries between 1850 and 1950. In sum, the proposed research project will make three important contributions to the literature: (1) Our study is the first to analyze the fundamental political causes of the mortality decline; (2) we identify crucial mechanisms through which political reforms affect population health; and (3) we explore whether proportional representation and direct voter participation have beneficial effects on social welfare - beyond their effect on public finances discussed in the literature. Our empirical results will provide insights for theoretical models studying the welfare effects of electoral systems and direct voter participation. Our findings will also provide important lessons for developing countries on how to design political institutions that improve the effective provision of public goods like education. The data we collect will be made publicly available once the project is completed.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• Participating Person: Professor Dr. Steffen Reinhold