Analyse waldbaulicher Alternativen zur Kahlschlagswirtschaft basierend auf angepassten bio-ökonomischen Modellen und neuen Ansätzen zur Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheit
Zusammenfassung der Projektergebnisse
The project was able to contribute to the further development of bio-economic models in forestry with several publications. A model for robust portfolio optimization developed in the field of land use was enhanced and applied to the management of forest stands. Here it could be shown that an economic optimization under uncertainty with a robust portfolio approach leads to very similar results as the classical stochastic portfolio optimization, but without the need for its extensive input data. The resulting forest structures as well as the management are very similar to those observed under "continuous cover forestry". Clear-cutting is not included in the portfolio of optimal economic management measures. In a further study, a simple combinatorial model was able to integrate uncertainties in the form of wood price fluctuations as well as growth reactions of remaining trees to harvesting measures. The model moves away from the approach of evaluating predefined silvicultural treatments. Rather, it has been more focused on investigating how growth responses of remaining trees after interventions and uncertainties can directly influence forest decisions on tree species selection and silvicultural treatment. Both approaches indicate significant economic advantages of alternatives to clear-cutting.
Projektbezogene Publikationen (Auswahl)
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(2015): Optimizing agricultural land-use portfolios with scarce data—A non-stochastic model. Ecological Economics 120: 250-259
Knoke, T.; Paul, C.; Härtl, F.; Castro, L.M.; Calvas, B.; Hildebrandt, P.
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(2016): A new method for the consideration of economic uncertainty in the context of portfolio optimizations in forest management. Forest Science Conference, Freiburg im Breisgau, 26-29 Sep. 2016
Knoke, T.; Messerer, K.
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(2016): A non-stochastic portfolio model for optimizing forest stand management under uncertainty of input coefficients. 5th International Faustmann Symposium, Peking, China, 17.-21.10.2016
Messerer, K.; Knoke, T.
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(2017): A critical view on benefit-cost analyses of silvicultural management options with declining discount rates. Forest Policy and Economics 83: 58-69
Knoke, T.; Paul, C.; Härtl, F.
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(2017): A non-stochastic portfolio model for optimizing forest stand management under uncertainty of input coefficients. 3. HEZagrar PhD Symposium, Freising, 25.04.2017
Messerer, K.; Knoke, T.
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(2017): A non-stochastic portfolio model for optimizing the transformation of an even-aged forest stand to continuous cover forestry when information about return fluctuation is incomplete. Annals of Forest Science 74(2): 45
Messerer, K.; Pretzsch, H.; Knoke, T.
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(2017): The Role of Economic Diversification in Forest Ecosystem Management. Current Forestry Reports 2(3): 93-106
Knoke, T.; Messerer, K.; Paul, C.
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(2017): Unsicherheiten verringern durch Portfolio-Optimierung. Allgemeine Forst Zeitschrift für Waldwirtschaft und Umweltvorsorge 72 (19): 22-24
Messerer, K.; Knoke, T.
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(2018): Ökonomische Bewertung von Behandlungsalternativen - ein vereinfachtes Modell mit Risikointegration. Forest Science Conference, Göttingen, 24- 27 Sep. 2018
Messerer, K.
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(2020): Importance of considering the growth response after partial harvesting and economic risk of discounted net revenues when optimizing uneven-aged forest management. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 50: 487-499
Messerer, K.; Kacprowski, T.; Kolo, H.; Baumbach, J.; Knoke T.
