Prognostic methods and future scenarios in language policy – multilingual Russia as an example
Final Report Abstract
Prognostic methods and models for analyzing future developments in multilingual societies have long been a desideratum of sociolinguistics. The objective of the joint project was to systematically explore the foundations for prognostic methods in selected fields of language policy. Furthermore, the project aimed to demonstrate their applicability on the basis of the multilingual language situation of the Russian Federation. This project was proposed as part of the RFBR-DFG cooperation. Due to Russia's war against Ukraine, all cooperation with the Russian partner has been stopped since February 2022. Since, according to the project plan, the focus in Giessen should be on methodological aspects and in Russia on empirical fieldwork, the work planned for the project at Justus Liebig University Giessen could be continued. Due to the cancellation of the empirical fieldwork in Russia (105 in-depth interviews in seven republics), the project was replanned on the Giessen side. The language base was expanded to include other Slavic languages. Due to the exceptional situation of the war, there were delays in the project schedule. The project continued at JLU Giessen under these changed conditions, achieved the following results: A detailed overview of research on forecasting methods in the social sciences was compiled and examined with regard to their applicability in sociolinguistics. The sociolinguistic approach to scenario models was applied to the example of migration from Ukraine, scenarios for the development of bilingualism and multilingualism and for the future of Ukrainian language teaching, as well as the development of Ukrainian studies in Europe. Furthermore, a dynamic model for forecasting developments in multilingual language situations was developed. It is based on social science methods of future studies, which were revised for sociolinguistic purposes. The model comprises five stages: features of current language situations, factors influencing future developments, a comparative analysis of the features and factors, prognosis in the form of scenarios, and research transfer in the form of recommendations for language policy. This five-stage model is being applied on language situations in Eastern Europe. The project results will be published in a comprehensive project volume, which is scheduled to appear in open access in the second half of 2025 by Harrassowitz Verlag.
Link to the final report
https://doi.org/10.22029/jlupub-20070
Publications
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The Routledge Handbook of the Sociopolitical Context of Language Learning. Routledge.
Wei, Weixiao & Chao, Der-lin
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Translanguaging of Ukrainian forced migrants in Germany and scenarios of Ukrainian-Russian bilingualism dynamics in the diaspora. Мови та культури під час війни: Колективна монографія = Languages and cultures in times of war: Collective monograph. Uzhhorod National University = ДВНЗ "Ужгородський національний університет".
Kiss, N.
