Seismische Gefährdung und Risiko für räumlich verteilte Systeme
Zusammenfassung der Projektergebnisse
During last decade an increasing attention has been focusing on studies of ground-motion correlation. The term is related to similarity of ground-motion variability, or residuals between observations and results of ground-motion modelling, during different earthquakes (between-earthquake correlation) and various locations (site-to-site correlation). The proper treatment of ground-motion correlation is essential for the estimation of seismic hazard, damage and loss for widely located building assets (portfolios) and spatially distributed structures (lifelines). In this project we analyzed characteristics of ground-motion correlation in Taiwan; the analysis allowed us to draw a conclusion whereby we found the correlation structure is highly dependent on local geology and on peculiarities of propagation path (azimuthdependent attenuation). The application of a region- or site-dependent correction reduces the spatial correlation, especially at large distances. A model for probabilistic seismic hazard and loss estimation using Monte Carlo approach has been developed for Taiwan. The model is based on previous experience in earthquake hazard modeling in the region. The framework has been used for sensitivity analysis of the impact of variation of ground-motion correlation components on deterministic and probabilistic estimates of seismic loss and damage for extended objects (hypothetical portfolio) and critical elements (e.g., bridges) of a network. The results of the analysis showed that both types of ground-motion correlation affect the probability of joint damage and the characteristics of loss distribution. On one hand, the impact of ground-motion correlation on seismic loss and damage estimation depends on level of hazard and probability level of interest (return period), and, on the other hand, the relative influence of each type of correlation is not equal. Thus, for practical estimations we should emphasize the following. If information on correlation models is not available, first, it is necessary to obtain upper and lower bound estimates by assuming the extreme characteristics of correlations (the perfect correlation and the uncorrelated ground motion). Second, if the difference between the bound estimates cannot be neglected, one should make some assumptions about the correlation based on reported models and results.
Projektbezogene Publikationen (Auswahl)
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(2009). Spatial correlation of strong ground motion and uncertainty in earthquake loss estimation. Proceedings of 95 Journees Luxembourgeoises de Geodynamique, Echternach, Luxembourg, 9-11 November 2009
Sokolov V. and F. Wenzel
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(2009). Spatial correlation of strong ground-motion and uncertainty in earthquake loss estimation. 95 Journees Luxembourgeoises de Geodynamique, Echternach, Luxembourg, 9-11 November 2009
Sokolov V. and F. Wenzel
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(2010). Influence of spatial correlation of strong ground-motion on uncertainty in earthquake loss estimation. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics
Sokolov V. and F. Wenzel
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(2010). Uncertainty and spatial correlation of earthquake ground motion in Taiwan”. Terrestial, Atmosperic and Oceanic sciences (TAO), 21 (6), 905-921
Sokolov V., F. Wenzel, W-Y Jean and K-L Wen
